Bangladesh has recently experienced a major political upheaval, marked by the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina amid widespread protests. The departure of the world’s longest-serving female leader has been seen by many as a ‘second liberation.’ However, it also reveals deep fractures within the country’s political, economic, and security systems.
Political Fallout
Under Sheikh Hasina’s 15-year rule, Bangladesh’s political system became highly skewed, with the Awami League dominating and opposition parties marginalized. This culminated in the protests against reimposing public sector job quotas, igniting broader dissatisfaction with the government. The resulting unrest led to Hasina’s resignation and subsequent flight.
The formation of a military-led interim government has brought some hope for stability. Major opposition parties, including the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), have had input into the new government structure. Khaleda Zia, formerly convicted on corruption charges, has been released, and the Jamaat-e-Islami party, previously banned, has been rehabilitated. Nobel laureate Mohammed Yunus has been appointed to lead the interim administration, though his role may be largely symbolic. The violence and attacks on the Awami League offices, including the deaths of several party leaders, highlight the challenges in creating an inclusive political climate.
Economic Challenges
The anti-government demonstrations highlighted significant economic issues in Bangladesh. Despite strong growth and improving statistics in recent years, the country faces high inflation (9.73% in 2023-24) and a slowing economy. The garment industry, a crucial part of the economy, is vulnerable to external shocks, as seen with the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war.
Youth unemployment is a pressing concern, with 18 million young people not working or in education. The protests were partly driven by frustrations over job quotas, with many new graduates competing for limited civil service positions. The IMF has committed to a $4.7 billion loan to support economic stability. Still, the European Union has postponed negotiations on a new trade agreement, impacting the garment sector’s access to the EU market.
Political and Security Risks
The unrest has resulted in over 300 deaths and 11,000 arrests, raising concerns about the security forces’ heavy-handed tactics. Bangladesh’s history of coups adds to the uncertainty, with the military closely monitoring the situation. There are fears that the military might seize power, given the internal divisions among security forces during the unrest.
Regional and Global Implications
The political crisis in Bangladesh has significant regional implications. India, which shares a long border with Bangladesh, is concerned about potential security risks and the impact on its citizens living there. The Hasina government’s pro-India stance has been a point of contention, and the new administration’s relations with India will be closely watched.
Internationally, the crisis highlights a divergence in foreign policy priorities. While the West has focused on democratic issues, India and China have supported a stable political environment under Hasina. The interim government’s approach to security, economic stability, and international relations will be crucial for its legitimacy and future development.
Looking Ahead
The departure of Sheikh Hasina marks a critical juncture in Bangladesh’s political history. The interim government faces the immediate task of stabilizing the country and preparing for new elections. Long-term success will depend on addressing structural challenges, ensuring economic stability, and rebuilding political and security institutions. The future of Bangladesh hinges on achieving these goals and navigating a complex political landscape.
